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Waks System Dynamics Inc.,B# BIHigh-Speed Data Delivery Strategies for the Cable Industry April 25, 1996J; J Outline ,Data applications have high potential for cable operators Internet and the Web SOHO ( Small Office, Home Office ) CD-ROM and Multimedia Data services business very different from video services Customer expectations hard to meet Profitability will be a challenge RecommendationsJ:N9N  Near-Term Opportunities Residential Data Services Access to Internet and online services Personal Web content hosting Telecommuting Business Data Services Access to Internet and online services Business Web content hostingLRDRD  Internet and On-line Services WorldWide Web Growing Rapidly 50 to 100 new sites per day Standards emerging Few proprietary obstacles Entrepreneurial ferment Low barriers to on-line entry Web browsers distributed widely Web development tools built into applications Web servers readily available Internet displacing OLS for mass-market content owners Owner controls content and presentation Better business terms and evolution02l7L02l  7L   SOHO is Important Revenue Source !Residential PC Penetration 40% have PCs now --> 60% by 2000 Of these ~ 1/3 work at home full-time ~ 1/3 work at home part-time ~ 1/3 don t work at home Small Business PC Penetration Very small business (< 10 employees): ~2 PCs Small business (10 to 99): ~8 PCsb*VO*V  O   High Near-Term Revenue Potential !CD-ROM and Multimedia Situation Plenty of multimedia platforms Vast majority of home PCs sold with multimedia: CD-ROM, sound card, speakers, microphone Plenty of CD-ROM titles More than 5000 today Shelf space limits CD-ROM availability Average store has 100 titles, big store maybe 250  Hit oriented Few big publishers control shelf space Hard for CD-ROM producers to make money Cost of production - $350K and up Revenue per title sold - $1-3 6% of titles (total of 200) generated profit in 1994 Y  ' h ( u Y'h(  u +CD-ROM and Multimedia Revenue Opportunities,, ,Near term Combine CD-ROM with access to OLS and Web CD-ROM provides static multimedia content On-line provides dynamic update OLS starting to incorporate CD-ROM Longer term On-line multimedia content for CD-ROM and Web applications CD-ROM product demonstration and sales Multimedia  pay-per-play Existing CD-ROM content New multimedia content without CD-ROM limitations *J# |J *J# |  J s*Many Promising Broadband Data Applications++ +Near-term High-speed access to Internet and on-line services Web content hosting Telecommuting Local community content Longer-term CD-ROM ordering, pay-per-play Video enhancements to Internet and on-line services Videoconferencing and video telephony Multi-player games Advertising Home shopping Direct marketing Distance learning Software distribution Government information and transactions m    T0 0{  Outline 4Data applications have high potential for cable operators Data services business very different from video services Different user expectations Both content- and communications-centered applications Different business model Customer expectations hard to meet Profitability will be a challenge RecommendationsVtlU:9lU 5 Two Different Businesses   Two Kinds of Applications  %Continuum of Electronic Applications  & +Value Chain - Content-centered Applications ,2Value Chain - Communications-centered Applications3% 3Outline Data applications have high potential for cable operators Data services business very different from video services Customer expectations hard to meet Profitability will be a challenge Recommendations0t#2 "Customer Needs and Expectations... # I get it when I want it  I don t have to wait for my modem to dial  I don t have to wait for the screen to paint  I get it when I need it  I don t have to keep looking for something I m waiting for  I can depend on it  It connects every time  It doesn t cut me off  Someone will hold my hand if I run into problems \=13,=.=<==13 F...Implications: Cable data delivery should satisfy expectations of initial customers Early adopters Fast connect time (seconds, not minutes) High data rates (megabits per second, not kilobits) Little contention for available bandwidth May be hard to keep customers satisfied Internet neither fast nor reliable today Performance likely to degrade over time with more users and higher bandwidth needs Ongoing reliability requires network management infrastructure Later subscribers require informed and attentive customer supportTE  (  E( Outline Data applications have high potential for cable operators Data services business very different from video services Customer expectations hard to meet Profitability will be a challenge Recommendations0" Profit is Harder than Revenue wPressure for flat-rate pricing Strong customer preference Much simpler recordkeeping, billing Data services cost structure very different from subscription video Video has known margin, independent of usage Data services margin depends on many factors Number of users Simultaneous use Application mix Bandwidth per user User tolerance for performance variations with load ...j ? D Z | ?DZ|   x'Decreasing Margins Will Force Repricing (Online services have been prone to  run-away applications Prodigy examples Data services will quickly absorb valuable cable bandwidth More users More simultaneous use Increasing bandwidth as applications include multimedia elements Operators will need to balance pricing against costs Higher flat rate Usage-based pricingt;;b5%;;b5%   COutline Data applications have high potential for cable operators Data services business very different from video services Customer expectations hard to meet Profitability will be a challenge Recommendations$ #Recommendations for Cable Operators $Consider tomorrow s applications when choosing today s technologies Install supporting infrastructure along with modems Network management for reliability Traffic management to understand usage patterns Pay attention to SOHO potential High penetration and willingness to pay Avoid promising long-term flat-rate pricing  Run-away applications will force change Assume you ll have to fulfill customer expectations to succeed Reliability Customer supportx S  ( , * ?  xS (,*?   / P   0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd?lKtZ[  d[ " ,  ; z? 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